NFTs, smart contracts, decentralised finance (DeFi) and blockchain platforms will most likely reach the plateau of productivity within two years, according a new report by Gartner.
Blockchain and IoT, tokenisation, Web3 and blockchain interoperability will take five to 10 years to reach the plateau.
As Web3 adoption continues to grow in organisations, many of its applications have made its way through the hype cycle at a fast pace.
The hype cycle indicates how a technology or application will evolve over time. The hype cycle begins with an innovation trigger, followed by a peak of inflated expectation, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment and finishes with the plateau of productivity.
According to Gartner, many innovations moved quickly through the hype cycle this past year, and will reach the plateau of productivity in under two years.
To gain mainstream adoption, the technology will need to become scalable, easier and safer to use, accessible using a wide range of off-the-shelf applications.
Cryptocurrency, stablecoins and blockchain wallets will hit the plateau in less than two years.
Enterprise adoption of blockchain is moving slower than consumer adoption, and most innovations driving it are moving up to the peak of inflated expectations. Historically, innovation starts with B2C applications and then moves to B2B.
Crypto and token prices crashed in the first half of 2022, but coin prices should not be conflated with technology value. Consumer apps like NFT games and commerce drive innovation as enterprises begin to realise business value. A tipping point in adoption will soon be reached, as risks are managed proactively.
Gartner assumes that by 2024, 25 percent of enterprises will interact with their customers or partners using decentralised Web3 applications.
There has been steady progress in the maturity of the various technologies indicating progress, with no significant accelerations in the past year, according to Gartner.
A few key technologies that have broad application across enterprises achieving mainstream adoption in two to five years. The primary ones are smart contracts, NFTs and decentralised applications.
Gartner said, “These movements provide both an opportunity and a note of caution for application and software engineering leaders. It shows that they must evaluate blockchain technologies as a strong candidate for their technology investments.
“However, it also indicates that they should still plan for an architecture that allows them to upgrade specific components or platforms as better solutions become available.”
